What the map shows
Light areas are regions where the atmosphere bends the wave more than usual. The brighter it is,
the further the signal can travel beyond the normal radio horizon. The dark background is ordinary
atmosphere — range as you’d expect day to day.
A duct is a channel in which the wave bounces between layers and travels hundreds of kilometres
instead of escaping into space. Then on 2 m you can hear stations that normally aren’t there.
Why 2 m and 70 cm use different maps
The mere existence of a duct isn’t enough — it has to be sufficiently thick relative
to the wavelength. The required thickness increases with wavelength, so 70 cm fits into ducts
that are too thin for 2 m.
That’s why there are days when 70 cm lights up while 2 m stays quiet. The other way round — almost never.
Where the data come from
Vertical atmospheric profile (temperature, humidity, height) from NOAA’s GFS model,
at six pressure levels from 1000 to 850 hPa, on a 0.5° grid — 486 points
over Poland and neighbouring countries.
From this, radio refractivity is computed according to ITU‑R P.453, and from that the
tropospheric ducts. Recalculated every three hours, with a forecast up to two days ahead.
What’s not included
Sporadic E — an ionospheric phenomenon, not tropospheric. It appears on 2 m rarely,
but can open the band over thousands of kilometres. It can’t be computed from meteorological data.
Aurora and meteor scatter have their own rules too. This map shows
tropo only — but properly calculated.
?
A frank note on the limitations: the model has a vertical resolution of about 200 m, while real ducts
can be thinner and sharper. The map tends to underestimate rather than overestimate — if it shows
marginal conditions on 2 m, it may be better out in the field. Treat it as a guide to when it’s worth listening,
not as an oracle. The best test is still a radio switched on.